Probabilistic prediction of extreme climate events
Some of the most important events in climate dynamics are rare events related to the fluctuating nature of geophysical flows. Examples of such events include heat waves or extreme precipitation, tropical cyclones, etc. Another class of high-impact events corresponds to the possibility that one or multiple components of the climate system undergo an irreversible transition to a qualitatively different mean state. Improved prediction capabilities of such events would be of direct socio-economic values, and is at the same time tightly linked with a better fundamental understanding of their dynamics.
In this talk, I will discuss the challenges related to prediction of rare events in fluctuating geophysical flows, present some relevant concepts such as the committor function and methods to compute it, and illustrate these ideas with the example of heat wave dynamics.
Contact Nathanaël Machicoane for more information or to schedule a discussion with the seminar speaker.